Three things to start with
- Build a cautious scenario
- Include labour and losses
- Separate cash flow from turnover
Revenue is not the remaining earnings
Revenue equals the number of bouquets sold multiplied by their average selling price. Deduct bouquet costs, payment fees, write-offs and operating expenses. The same number of sales can produce different results when packaging, restocking routes or unsold stock differ. Keep these inputs separate so you can see which part of the operation needs attention
Break-even under your assumptions
Divide monthly fixed expenses by the contribution from one sold bouquet after variable costs. This gives an approximate number of sales needed to cover expenses, provided contribution is positive. Include rent, travel, labour and write-offs in the appropriate budget lines. The calculation is useful only when its assumptions reflect your operation rather than an unusually successful example from elsewhere
Three scenarios instead of one forecast
Compare slower, planned and stronger sales scenarios in the calculator. Vary write-offs and restocking frequency as well as sales. A negative monthly balance does not support a payback calculation. Even dividing investment by a positive balance is only a simple planning measure: it does not capture financing, tax or the timing of cash flows. Use it to test assumptions, not promise a return